{"schemaVersion":4,"model":"joint nonlinear P.453/P.676/P.840 4D atmosphere-and-nuisance estimator","evidenceClass":"public-analysis-cube-driven nonlinear spectroscopic RF observing-system simulation","evidenceScope":"RF OSSE driven by public NOAA HRRR analysis cubes. HRRR supplies hidden atmospheric truth only for RF synthesis and scoring; it is not an inverse-model input. This is not field validation or a commercial-LEO accuracy claim.","finalTestSeeds":[1600,1601,1602,1603],"inputContract":["same-event neutral excess delay","link-budget-qualified multiband attenuation","satellite and receiver trajectories","beam and handover identity"],"excludedInputs":["past weather values","contemporaneous measured weather values","future weather values","HRRR truth fields","truth nuisance states"],"state":{"epochs":6,"epochSpacing":"1 hour","grid":"4 x 4 x 4","directPaths":768,"limbPaths":768,"candidateBandsGhz":[12,21,22.23508,23,24,30,40,50,54,54.67,117.5,120,183,190],"maximumDetectableAttenuationDb":40,"weatherFields":["temperature","relative humidity","cloud liquid","dry pressure"],"nuisanceStates":["receiver clock","satellite clock","three-axis satellite orbit error","receiver gain","beam / handover gain"],"hydrostaticConstraint":"Dry pressure is estimated jointly and coupled vertically by a nonlinear hypsometric constraint; no measured pressure is supplied to the inverse."},"validation":{"source":"NOAA HRRR pressure-level analysis","protocol":"Two held-out public weather events, two noise trials per event. The downloaded analysis cubes are withheld from the inverse and used only to synthesize RF observables and score retrievals.","events":[{"id":"nyc_winter","label":"New York winter storm","date":"2024-02-13","trials":2,"temperatureRmseC":0.489077,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":3.510298,"pwvRmseMm":0.020954},{"id":"phoenix_monsoon","label":"Phoenix monsoon","date":"2024-08-05","trials":2,"temperatureRmseC":0.461066,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":2.367925,"pwvRmseMm":0.038157}],"trials":4,"allGatePasses":4,"standardizedResidualMse":{"mean":0.910442,"std":0.01304}},"crossEventValidation":{"schema":"weather-satrf-public-hrrr-cross-event-validation-v1","protocol":"A predeclared inclusion rule ran the unchanged final-v2 configuration on every distinct compatible public cube. No case-specific tuning or trial deletion was allowed.","evidenceClasses":{"developmentExposed":5,"postFreezeUntouched":2,"qualifier":"The seven-event census tests breadth under a frozen configuration, but only NYC and Phoenix were untouched after the final-v2 design freeze."},"events":7,"weatherGatePasses":7,"measurementClosurePasses":7,"solverConvergencePasses":6,"nonconvergedCase":"Beryl-Houston reached the 20-iteration cap while still meeting all weather gates and the measurement-closure gate; it is retained and counted as a solver failure.","pooledMetrics":{"temperatureRmseC":{"mean":0.42472,"std":0.045983,"minimum":0.371031,"maximum":0.495756},"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":{"mean":2.444604,"std":0.542518,"minimum":1.95206,"maximum":3.582653},"pwvRmseMm":{"mean":0.040689,"std":0.026329,"minimum":0.003115,"maximum":0.082688},"dryPressureRmseHpa":{"mean":0.974516,"std":0.144865,"minimum":0.83569,"maximum":1.261587},"standardizedResidualMse":{"mean":0.898523,"std":0.010106,"minimum":0.885747,"maximum":0.918207}}},"geometryAblation":{"schema":"weather-satrf-public-hrrr-geometry-ablation-v1","event":"Phoenix monsoon | 2024-08-05","seed":1800,"intervention":"limb azimuths per layer: 0 versus 2","controlled":"Same public truth cube, RF and nuisance seed, direct-observation noise, 14 bands, 40 dB gate, priors, and solver; no retuning.","directOnly":{"label":"Direct only","directPaths":768,"limbPaths":0,"observations":9990,"temperatureRmseC":1.514928,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":9.826141,"pwvRmseMm":0.116973,"dryPressureRmseHpa":1.650387,"requestedTargetsPass":false},"directPlusLimb":{"label":"Direct + curved limb","directPaths":768,"limbPaths":768,"observations":17227,"temperatureRmseC":0.437178,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":2.293724,"pwvRmseMm":0.037882,"dryPressureRmseHpa":0.972143,"requestedTargetsPass":true},"relativeReductionPct":{"temperature":71.141971,"relativeHumidity":76.656924,"pwv":67.615046,"dryPressure":41.096084}},"primaryMetrics":[{"id":"temperature","label":"Temperature","unit":"deg C","jointRmse":0.475071,"jointStd":0.020153,"noRfRmse":12.0974,"requestedGate":1,"reductionPct":96.07295},{"id":"relative_humidity","label":"Relative humidity","unit":"percentage points","jointRmse":2.939112,"jointStd":0.664139,"noRfRmse":31.2089,"requestedGate":4,"reductionPct":90.582456},{"id":"pwv","label":"Precipitable water","unit":"mm","jointRmse":0.029555,"jointStd":0.00995,"noRfRmse":17.8424,"requestedGate":1,"reductionPct":99.834355}],"secondaryMetrics":{"dryPressureRmseHpa":1.145522,"cloudLiquidRmseGm3":0.000253,"vapourDensityRmseGm3":0.007333,"meanSolveSeconds":34.338},"methods":[{"id":"no_rf","label":"No RF","role":"Structural atmosphere only","temperatureRmseC":12.0974,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":31.2089,"pwvRmseMm":17.8424},{"id":"atmosphere_only","label":"4D, no calibration","role":"Atmosphere absorbs RF nuisance error","temperatureRmseC":3.06584,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":16.4911,"pwvRmseMm":0.405828},{"id":"joint_3d","label":"Joint 3D","role":"Independent epochs with nuisance calibration","temperatureRmseC":0.532432,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":3.255722,"pwvRmseMm":0.03094},{"id":"joint_4d","label":"Joint 4D","role":"Dynamic atmosphere and nuisance trajectory","temperatureRmseC":0.484023,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":2.995196,"pwvRmseMm":0.029182},{"id":"oracle","label":"Oracle","role":"True nuisance removed; undeployable bound","temperatureRmseC":0.423584,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":2.569429,"pwvRmseMm":0.027074}],"robustness":[{"id":"nominal","label":"Nominal Phoenix","method":"joint 4D","decision":"serve","temperatureRmseC":0.4946,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":2.5364,"pwvRmseMm":0.03476},{"id":"bursts_gaussian","label":"5% burst corruption","method":"Gaussian","decision":"withhold","temperatureRmseC":1.5964,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":7.0571,"pwvRmseMm":0.3285},{"id":"bursts_huber","label":"5% burst corruption","method":"group Huber","decision":"serve","temperatureRmseC":0.575,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":2.9607,"pwvRmseMm":0.05935},{"id":"link_loss","label":"30% link loss","method":"joint 4D","decision":"serve","temperatureRmseC":0.5466,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":2.9184,"pwvRmseMm":0.04903},{"id":"double_nuisance","label":"2x nuisance amplitude","method":"joint 4D","decision":"serve","temperatureRmseC":0.439,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":2.2981,"pwvRmseMm":0.03601},{"id":"combined","label":"Combined stress","method":"group Huber","decision":"serve","temperatureRmseC":0.6831,"relativeHumidityRmsePoints":3.5623,"pwvRmseMm":0.07971}],"robustDiagnostics":{"burstFlagPrecisionPct":100,"burstFlagRecallPct":90.9},"limitations":["The receiver observations are simulated from public HRRR analyses, not collected from operational LEO links.","The 14 frequencies are candidate sensing channels; link-budget gating removes any modeled attenuation above 40 dB.","HRRR is model-analysis truth rather than independent radiosonde or radiometer truth.","Rain, ice, ray bending, scintillation, terrain, and hardware-specific channel effects remain outside this final-v2 experiment."]}